Without Clean Power Plan, coal dominates US power generation until 2032
By JUDY HISLOP
WASHINGTON, DC (February 14, 2017) – The mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States has changed in response to differences in the expected cost of fuels and electricity-generating technology costs and their deployment, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
These factors, together with policies affecting emissions from power generation, will determine the generation fuel mix of the future.
Multiple cases in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2017 (AEO2017) show how projected electricity generation is affected by fuel prices, especially natural gas prices, and the Clean Power Plan, a final Environmental Protection Agency rule issued in 2015 whose enforcement was stayed by the US Supreme Court in Feb. 2016 pending the resolution of legal challenges.
Without the Clean Power Plan, there is less incentive to switch from carbon-intensive coal to less carbon-intensive natural gas or carbon-free fuels such as wind and solar.
In the scenario where the Clean Power Plan is not implemented, coal again becomes the leading source of electricity generation by 2019 and retains that position through 2032, longer than in the Reference case, which includes the Clean Power Plan.